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To the east medicine during the civil war order 50 mcg flovent visa, wars with Persia were infrequent symptoms xanax treats buy 50mcg flovent fast delivery, with long periods of peace (Baynes 1943: 34-5; A medicine 54 543 buy cheap flovent 50 mcg line. Within the framework developed here it may be observed that the East survived because symptoms tonsillitis generic flovent 50mcg with visa, with its greater wealth and its smaller border problems, its investment in complexity was more easily financed, and its marginal return higher. The support population was wealthier and more numerous, and thus less easily overtaxed. And its government was, if not more successful militarily than the West, at least less unsuccessful. The government of the East continued to rule not just because of wealth and geography, but also because these happy circumstances combined to give it greater legitimacy. The third factor accounting for the survival of the empire in the eastern Mediterranean is that it could not collapse. To discuss this point requires concepts that will be introduced in the final chapter. Many authors concentrate on the expense of transport, ^d the poverty of the rural population, as reasons why industry did not develop, nor agriculture intensify. Yet the collapse of complex societies 152 Evaluation: complexity and marginal returns 153 there is more to the matter. It might be worthwhile to consider the matter by comparison to the later development of industrialism in northwestern Europe. As described in previous chapters, Wilkinson (1973) has argued that, at least in its initial phases, industrialism in England was stress-induced. Overpopulation in the later Medieval period led to clearing of forests for agricultural land. The resulting drop in fuelwood regeneration required the populace to shift to increased dependence on coal. Reliance on coal in turn necessitated a host of concomitant changes, many associated with the industrial `revolution. Lands that had once been cultivated were in late Classical times deserted, while agricultural labor was in short supply. Government attempts to reclaim the abandoned lands and to foster population growth were notably unsuccessful. It has been argued that such attempts at intensifying the use of land will typically be unsuccessful, if imposed from the top in a situation in which they are inappropriate (cf. Intensification, whether in the use of land or in any economic sphere, would have had to emerge from demographic and/or economic pressures operating on the bulk of the Roman poftulation (Wilkinson 1973; North and Thomas 1973). Other pressures, to be sure, were affecting the population of the Empire, but not a lack of economic opportunity. In Britain, for example, the heavy plow needed to take in the clay lands was probably known from before Roman times, and yet population was so low that the clay lands were largely avoided until later (Boak 1955: 36; Wailes 1972). If the later Roman government had attempted a policy of economic development, it would have experienced a frustration often found by contemporary governments attempting the same thing: development cannot be forced in the absence of demand. The Classic Maya collapse society underwent a rapid, dramatic, and justly famous collapse between about 790 and 890 A. The record of their rise and fall can be most clearly discussed in the context of Mayan archaeological chronology. In actuality, a number of chronologies exist for the Southern Lowlands, most of which are sufficiently similar that their differences need not concern us. The setting Lowland Classic Maya Civilization is often regarded as a puzzle of human history. One of the few early civilizations that did not develop in a semi-arid setting (Sanders 1962: 79), the Maya are, as Netting has observed, `. This discussion will concentrate on the Maya of the Southern Lowlands, whose As with most archaeological chronologies, this one is highly generalized, and the dates are of course rounded averages. Not all authors make the distinction between Late Preclassic and Protoclassic, and between Terminal Classic and Postclassic, so in the discussion that follows there may be some blurring of these phases. The Maya produced a form of hieroglyphic script that cannot at present be fully read, although considerable progress has been made toward its decipherment. The vegetation of the Southern Lowlands is today a tropical rainforest, as it was when the Maya first began to clear the land for planting.

Both official militaries and armed non-state groups find themselves at the centre of emergency plans in response to the pandemic symptoms kidney failure dogs 50 mcg flovent with mastercard, declaring and enforcing social distancing measures such as lockdowns and curfews medicine for bronchitis cheap flovent 50mcg amex. The internationally-recognized government and the Houthis are implementing similar measures symptoms hepatitis c order flovent 50mcg without a prescription, so far xerostomia medications that cause trusted flovent 50mcg, but what differs - and what can make the difference in terms of crisis containment - is the pattern of security governance adopted on the territory. The government and the Houthis established two distinctively different forms of "war time social orders". This uncoordinated model could diminish the effectiveness of the anti-pandemic response, and also undermine state capacity. Most Arab armies have been deployed in the streets to enforce social distancing measures, as in the case of Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. In Morocco, the army also set up field hospitals and in Jordan it also organized the delivery of basic services at home. One initial outcome of their role in enforcing curfews and lockdowns has been an intensified militarization of public space, as the state of emergency further erodes the boundaries between internal security forces and the military. In conflict-torn or fragmented countries such as Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, however, the armies and militias cooperate, coexist or compete within the state boundaries. Anti-pandemic policies are being implemented only partially by traditional military institutions, but also by complex military structures resulting from security hybridization between state and non-state actors. In Syria, the army suspended recruitment and the penalties for those avoiding conscription; in the Kurdish held northeast, Syrian Democratic Forces closed schools, border crossings and limited public events, although they did not halt conscription. In Libya, both of the warring coalitions imposed lockdowns and curfews, while actually accelerating the fighting in the midst of the crisis. The case of Yemen does show a formal convergence of policies, since the internationally-recognized government and the de facto authority of the Houthis have opted for similar emergency choices. But they show two different patterns of security governance: centralized (the Houthis) vs multiple (the recognized government). Conversely, security governance in the territories formally under the recognized government is performed by a number of competing security players, who pursue different and often conflictual political interests at a local level. The areas formally held by the recognized government have (1) a variety of security providers operating on the same territory (multiple security governance) and (2) governorates and local authorities with conflicting political allegiances and agendas with respect to the recognized government, all taking part in decision-making (multilevel security governance). Both the government and the de facto authority of the Houthis launched bureaucratic institutions to handle the health crisis: in Aden, the government established the Supreme National Emergency Committee for Coronavirus; in Sanaa, the Houthis organized their Supreme Committee for Epidemics Control. Both the government and the de facto authority closed schools, stopped prayers at mosques, limited public gatherings, began regulating markets and shops to reduce crowds, and organized quarantine facilities. About 800 prisoners have been released so far by the Houthis and the government as a preventive measure to reduce the spread of the infection. Security enforcement is monopolized by the supervisors (musharafeen): they work at the interplay between security provision and adjudication. The supervisors rule on a hierarchical "shadow system", since their authority exceeds that of institutions (including the self-proclaimed government): they answer only to the governorate-level supervisor and report directly to the office of the leader, Abdel Malek Al Houthi. The supervisors come predominantly from Saada and Hajja governorates (home of the Northern insurgents) and belong to the Houthi movement. The centralized approach strongly emphasizes how the Houthi movement and militia have transformed from rebel to de facto authority. Since 2015, traditional security providers have been marginalized or had to change their role. For instance, tribal chiefs (shuyyukh) lost their prominent position in security provision and enforcement, as well as the police forces were subjugated to the supervisors. Aqils are locally-elected representatives linking 81 state security providers with the community: they perform police tasks in rural areas and the Yemeni law (13/2001) defines them as justice enforcement officers. The multiplicity of security actors shapes uncoordinated, fluid and often competitive patterns of security enforcement and provision. With the outbreak of the 2015 civil war, most of the local authorities collapsed since they mirrored political divisions; they lost much of their budget and capacity, especially in Houthis-held areas. For instance, the local authorities of Marib, Taiz, Mukalla, Sayun, Al Mahra and Shabwa each established an emergency committee and drafted preventive plans to implement government measures. Trying to raise public awareness about the virus, they partnered with local activists in urban centres (as Aden, Taiz and in Hadhramawt) for awareness campaigns. However, local authorities are often not able to practically translate government measures and sometimes act autonomously. The governor of Hadhramawt and commander of the second military zone, General Faraj Al Bahsani, declared the state of emergency and a night curfew during a televised speech, asking the police to prevent public gatherings.

To make this argument more formal medicine to stop runny nose cheap flovent 50mcg mastercard,76 consider two positive radii R< and R> that bound the initial value R0 of R2: R< R0 R> symptoms 9 days past iui buy generic flovent 50 mcg. Then we can consider a paths up to its stopping time medications bad for liver order 50mcg flovent visa, at which point L takes the value log R2 (); when averaging over all continuations of the path up to time t > medicine doctor buy generic flovent 50mcg online, the value log R() is unchanged. Now extending the average over all paths up to the stopping time, we see that it is equivalent to write Eq. Now writing the expectation value in terms of probabilities for first hitting R< or R>, log R0 = (log R<) P [R2 () = R<] + (log R>) P [R2 () = R>]. However, the same argument with fixed R> and R< - 0 gives that R2 (t) will never hit the origin in finite time. Thus, so to speak, the origin is nonrecurrent, but any disc surrounding the origin is recurrent. It is sufficient to show this in three dimensions, again because any projection of a d-dimensional motion onto three dimensions will satisfy these conditions. Computing the differential of P (and expanding to second order), b-1 dP = abRd dRd + ab(b - 1) b-2 Rd (dRd)2, 2 (17. In what follows, it is useful to remember that for d > 2, P goes as an inverse power of Rd. As in the previous section, we may take Rd (0) = R0 to be the initial condition, and define inner and outer boundaries satisfying R< R0 R>, with the first passage time through either boundary. We can rewrite the expectation value as before in terms of the probabilities for first crossing the inner and outer boundaries as 2-d 2-d 2-d R0 = R< P [Rd () = R<] + R> P [Rd () = R>]. Thus, the probability for a path starting at R0 > 0 to hit the origin is zero (and thus the origin is nonrecurrent, since once a path moves away from the origin, it will not return). Each path starting at R0 has a (pathwise) minimum radius, and the probability density for this minimum is given by differentiating (17. We want to show that after some time t>, Rd (t) > R> for all t > t> with probability 1. But this probability converges to zero as R -, in which case we are guaranteed that the path does not return below R>. In cases where we compute quantities like the sojourn time or the local time, analytic expressions are available for the ensemble average, generating function, and so on. But for more complicated statistics, analytic expressions may not be available, and numerical simulations are needed to compute such averages. Another important class of ensemble-average problems that we have not yet discussed is the differentiation of ensemble-averaged statistics. Since Wiener processes are nondifferentiable, the differentation of numeric quantities with underlying Wiener processes can be tricky. Recall, for example, that the sojourn time can be differentiated to yield the local time [see Eq. In a further differentiation of the local-time process, the derivative of the ensemble average is well-defined, but the pathwise derivative has arbitrarily large fluctuations in the continuum limit [see Eq. Thus, it is useful to consider some general approaches to handling derivatives of stochastic processes, which can be handled efficiently in certain cases with a variety of tricks. As a byproduct, we will also briefly study the derivative of a stochastic process with respect to a stochastic quantity, which gives the generalizes variational calculus to stochastic processes. Such derivatives are useful in, for example, computing Casimir forces from energy path integrals (Chapter 21). These techniques are also widely employed in financial mathematics, where ensemble averages over stochastic trajectories are used to price financial derivatives. In such pricing, derivatives of the price with respect to parameters such as the volatility or starting price yields the ``sensitivity' of the price with respect to parameter variations. These techniques also apply in optimization problems, where the ``payoff' to optimize is estimated via Monte-Carlo simulations. In some important cases we can arrange things such that the only dependence on the right-hand side on the parameter is in the probability distribution for Z. This approach can work even in some cases where it seems that the payoff function should represent the parameter dependence. For example, suppose we differentiate the sojourn time of Wiener paths with respect to the boundary distance d, which is a part of the functional rather than the paths.

The intake juvenile probation officer will notify the parent or guardian of a juvenile arrested pursuant to a probation violation warrant issued by Denver Juvenile Court treatment math definition order flovent 50 mcg visa. A copy of the Writ of Assistance must accompany the juvenile to the place of detention or shelter medicine overdose order flovent 50mcg. Having a parent/legal guardian respond to any police facility to take custody of the juvenile symptoms quivering lips cheap flovent 50 mcg on-line. Transporting the juvenile home if the parent/legal guardian is present but cannot respond to take custody the juvenile medications causing pancreatitis cheap flovent 50mcg on-line. If a parent/legal guardian cannot be contacted, refuses to accept the juvenile at home, or refuses to take custody the juvenile, the juvenile will be taken to a shelter designated by the Denver Department of Human Services Hotline (720-944-3000). The appearance date will be the first working day three (3) weeks from the date of service. Repeat offenders, if known, will be ordered-in to the Vice/Narcotics Section for 1130 hrs, Monday through Friday. The parent/guardian must accompany the juvenile and it is imperative that all reports reach the Vice/Narcotics Section prior to the order-in date/time. The situation commander (or designee) will coordinate with the Chief Juvenile Probation Officer (or designee) and the regional manager of the Division of Youth Services (or designee) for arrestee disposition. The reporting officer will notify Juvenile Section that the in-custody juvenile will need to be fingerprinted and photographed. An officer assigned to the Juvenile Section will complete an arrest/booking slip, respond to the youth center to fingerprint/photograph the juvenile and notify the Identification Section of the new record. The fact that a juvenile may have ingested alcohol or marijuana in the past and it does not impair their ability to function will not require them to be transported to Denver Health Medical Center if the officer determines their health and safety are not at risk. They may be placed in secure detention after being medically evaluated by Denver Health Medical Center personnel if they fit the mandatory or discretionary felony detention criteria, or with the approval of the intake screening specialist for misdemeanors or other circumstances. Required medications for any life threatening illnesses such as diabetes, asthma or heart issues, must accompany the juvenile when arrested. Mental Health Considerations: O P E R A T I O N S D E N V E R P O L I C E M A N U A L D E P A R T M E N T 401. The Missing and Exploited Persons Unit will be notified with a copy of the M-1 (emergency mental health hold). Release Prior to Detention Hearing: Juveniles placed in the Gilliam Youth Services Center on police holds may be released from the hold prior to a detention hearing by the assigned investigative officer or supervisor only. In the event of a fax failure at Paramount Youth Services, the investigative officer or supervisor will call the intake screening specialist and verbally cancel the hold at 720-913-8980. This call will be followed up with the mailing of a copy of the form to the intake screening specialist, located at Denver Juvenile Services Center (Juvenile Section), 303 W. The investigative officer or supervisor will also call the Juvenile Section and make notification. Runaways (Denver cases): When officers locate a missing or runaway juvenile, they will complete a supplemental to the original report. Released to a parent or guardian at the scene of apprehension if the parent/guardian accepts custody. Taken home if phone contact with the parent/guardian establishes that the parent/guardian will accept custody but lacks transportation or is disabled. Runaways (outside jurisdiction cases): When a Denver police officer detains an out of Denver runaway from the metro area: 1. Custody may be transferred if a parent/legal guardian (or to a law enforcement officer from the initiating agency) is present at the scene of apprehension and is willing to take custody of the juvenile. If a parent/legal guardian (or a law enforcement officer from the initiating agency) is not present, the officer will notify Denver 911 and instruct them to contact the initiating agency for the purpose of transferring custody. Denver911 will attempt to identify a mutually agreed upon location with the initiating agency so that custody of the runaway can be transferred. If the initiating agency cannot respond within a reasonable amount of time, the runaway will be transported to the Juvenile Section for processing. As soon as the initiating agency is available and as staffing permits, Juvenile Section officers will transport the runaway to execute a transfer of custody. If the initiating agency is unwilling or unable to take custody, the Juvenile Section will complete the necessary processing and place the runaway in a shelter designated by the Denver Department of Human Services.

Collapse 5 asa medications generic flovent 50 mcg on line, involving as it does a sudden treatment naive cheap 50 mcg flovent with mastercard, major loss of an established level of complexity symptoms joint pain and tiredness buy discount flovent 50mcg on line, must be considered relative to the size of the society in which it occurs symptoms 4dp3dt cheap 50mcg flovent amex. Simple societies can lose an established level of complexity just as do great empires. Sedentary horticultur alists may become mobile foragers, and lose the sociopolitical trapping^ of village life. A region organized under central chiefly administration may lose this hierarchical umbrella and revert to independent, feuding villages. A group of foragers may be sh distressed by environmental deterioration that sharing and societal organization are largely abandoned. These are cases of collapse, no less so than the end of Rome, and no less significant for their respective populations. To the extent, moreover, that the collapses of simpler societies can be understood by general principles, they are no less illuminating than the fall of nations and empires. Any explanation of collapse that purports to have general potential should help us to understand the full spectrum pf its manifestations, from the simplest to the most complex. These points made, it should be cautioned that in fact defining collapse is no easy matter. The present discussion may serve to introduce the orientation, but the definition will have to be added to as the work progresses. Collapse in history the fall of the Roman Empire is, in the West, the most widely known instance of collapse, the one which comes most readily to popular thought. Yet it is only onq case, if a particularly dramatic one, of a fairly common process. Collapse is a recurrent feature of human societies, and indeed it is this fact that makes it worthwhile to explore a general explanation. This overview is intended to illustrate common elements to the phenom enon, and also to portray the range of societies that are susceptible. In accord with the discussion of the previous section, the reader will find in the following pages a spectrum of societies from simple to powerful and complex. The picture that emerges is of a process recurrent in history and prehistory, and global in its distribu tion. There have been, in addition, no doubt many hundreds or thousands of collapses among centralized societies that were not orga nized at a sufficient level of complexity to produce written records. To, the extent that collapse is a general process, such cases are fully pertinent to understanding it, and should be studieq. A reign was subsequently established that later Chinese looked back on as a golden the collapse of complex societies 6 Introduction to collapse 7 age. The Chou ruled through a feudal system, but within a few centuries their control began to slip. Barbarian invasions increased in frequency through the ninth and eighth centuries, and regional lords began to ignore their obligations to the Chou court. Following this disaster, the Chou capital was moved east to Loyang, where the Eastern Chou dynasty resided from 770 to 256 B. The Eastern Chou, however, were powerless figureheads: Chinese unity effectively collapsed with the Western Chou. Powerful regional states emerged which contended endlessly for hegemony, forging and breaking alliances, engaging in wars, and manipulating barbarian groups. In addition to many technical and economic developments, Chinese political thought in its classical form emerged during the worst of the breakdown (Creel 1953, 1970; Needham 1965; Levenson and Schurman 1969; Hucker 1975). Eventually these too, passed into history (Piggott 1950; Raikes 1964; Dales 1966; Thapar 1966Wheeler 1966, 1968; Allchin and Allchin 1968; Gupta 1982). It displays a history of political rises and declines that lurmshes many examples of collapse. Its fall some 200 years following establishment was presaged by a series of rebellions in the subject city-states. The next period of regional hegemony was estabhshed by the Third Dynasty of Ur (ca. I he Third Dynasty of Ur encouraged expansion of the irrigation system, and growth of population and settlement. This attempt to maximize economic and political power led to a rapid collapse, with disastrous consequences for southern Mesopotamia. Over e next millennium or so there was a 40 percent reduction in the number of settlements, and a 77 percent reduction in settled area.

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